Tensions are nearly at a boiling point. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu made it clear that Israel would resume offensive action in Gaza if Hamas does not release more hostages by Saturday. This statement followed a similar statement by US president Donald Trump, who suggested “letting all hell break loose”.
Hamas and Israel accuse each other of violating the ceasefire deal of January 19th. According to Hamas, Israel is still perpetrating violence in Gaza, is blocking equipment required for the removal of rubble, and is blocking humanitarian aid to Gaza. In response, Hamas has halted its release of hostages. Israel calls this is a violation of the ceasefire by Hamas.
The ceasefire deal
A precarious ceasefire deal was ratified in January, which saw violence reduce in Gaza, after 15 months of conflict between Hamas and the Israel Defence Forces (IDF). The two parties were heavily opposed to a deal, and its contents. The main driver for Israel was the release of hostages taken by Hamas during the October 7th attacks. Hamas would only consent to this if a permanent ceasefire could be reached. Serious discussions about a potential ceasefire started in May, under the supervision of the United States (Biden administration), Qatar and Egypt.
The deal was eventually signed and went into effect on January 19th, 2025. The requirements of the ceasefire were formulated as follows: Hamas would release the hostages, returning them to Israel. In return, Israel would gradually demilitarise the Gaza strip and allow passage for ‘sufficient’ humanitarian aid to go to Gaza. This would happen in three stages that would each last 6 weeks. The current tensions have arisen less than 4 weeks into the first stage.
Israeli government tensions
At the time, it seemed strange that Israel would act in favour of a ceasefire deal, particularly a deal like this. The Israeli government has been convinced in its actions regarding the complete destruction of Hamas. At the same time, Prime Minister Netanyahu wants to realise his promise of getting the hostages home. While some applauded the moves towards a ceasefire, there were others within the Israeli government who voiced a clear disapproval. Particularly, the hardline right-wing conservatist’s opinion became clear through Itamar Ben-Gvir. Ben-Gvir, leader of the ultranationalist Otzma Yehudit party left the government on January 19th. He voiced the opinion, shared by many within the extreme conservatist bloc, that a ceasefire was akin to failure, and that Israel should not stop until Hamas is destroyed, and Palestinians are removed from Gaza.
Ben-Givr’s leaving of the government put the parliament in an extremely delicate position. The current coalition holds a majority of 61 seats out of 120 in the ‘Knesset’, the parliament of Israel. If another party were to leave the coalition, the government would collapse. While Netanyahu’s party would still become largest if elections were held, his influence would reduce, as the far-right would gain more. Not to mention that Netanyahu personally has become unpopular and is facing charges of corruption, which he will have to answer to when he no longer has the immunity of his office.
US influence
At the time of the ratification, it was, as such, surprising that Israel consented to a ceasefire. What happened? The short answer is Donald Trump. Sources suggest that the then president-elect, put heavy pressure on Israel to agree with a ceasefire. Israel is incredibly dependent on the United States for its military. Israel is the second largest recipient of foreign financial aid by the US. An inflated position, given the fact that number 1 is currently Ukraine. Cumulatively, Israel is by far the largest, having received an annual 3.3 billion US dollars, almost all of it being military aid. As such we can assume that Trump made an ‘offer’ the Israelis could not refuse. Without military aid, the Israeli state is virtually helpless in the long run.
Now it seems that President Trump has endorsed exactly the opposite. Following the suggestion of an ultimatum, Prime Minister Netanyahu took to make this an official threat. If by noon Saturday, the hostages were not released, the ceasefire would be over. In this way, it almost seems like Trump gave Netanyahu the go ahead to break truce. Given that it was Trump who wanted this ceasefire realised in the first place, why would he allow a return to violence now?
The only reason that can be thought of, is his intensions regarding a US takeover of Gaza, which he vocalised a week earlier. Trump then formulated the idea in a joint press conference with Netanyahu in which he suggested moving the displaced Palestinians to neighbouring countries. An idea which has been heavily endorsed by the far-right bloc of the Israeli government.
Meanwhile, lines are being drawn. The Arab League has collectively condemned the statements regarding the moving of 1.8 million Palestinians. President Sissi of Egypt has cancelled a White House visit. A Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo earlier today, to discuss saving the ceasefire. King Abdullah of Jordan was visiting with Trump and took stance against the plan as well. Jordan had been earmarked as one of the countries offering refuge to the Palestinians in Trump’s plan. Western leaders condemn Trump for his undiplomatic way of conduct. Israeli reserve troops have been called up, making people wonder whether the IDF will even respect the deadline of noon, the coming Saturday.
